{"id":8535,"date":"2024-04-06T07:05:44","date_gmt":"2024-04-06T11:05:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/?p=8535"},"modified":"2024-04-06T13:16:32","modified_gmt":"2024-04-06T17:16:32","slug":"se-derrumba-el-riesgo-pais-de-argentina-el-spread-soberano-cerro-la-semana-en-1-302-puntos-el-valor-mas-bajo-desde-el-18-de-septiembre-de-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/en\/se-derrumba-el-riesgo-pais-de-argentina-el-spread-soberano-cerro-la-semana-en-1-302-puntos-el-valor-mas-bajo-desde-el-18-de-septiembre-de-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Se derrumba el riesgo pa\u00eds de Argentina: El spread soberano cerr\u00f3 la semana en 1.302 puntos, el valor m\u00e1s bajo desde el 18 de septiembre de 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Photographer:<\/picture><\/div>
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\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Se derrumba el riesgo pa\u00eds de Argentina y el mercado ve margen para una mayor compresi\u00f3n<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Erica Canepa\/Bloomberg<\/span>(Bloomberg\/Erica Canepa)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

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Buenos Aires \u2014 La\u00a0Argentina\u00a0<\/b>cerr\u00f3 la primera semana de abril con un\u00a0riesgo pa\u00eds de 1.302 puntos b\u00e1sicos, el valor m\u00e1s bajo desde septiembre de 2020<\/b>. Por entonces, el\u00a0spread<\/i>\u00a0soberano hab\u00eda ca\u00eddo a 1.101 puntos (el 10 de septiembre de aquel a\u00f1o) luego de que el banco JP Morgan, que desarrolla el \u00edndice, rebalanceara la canasta de t\u00edtulos contemplados para la medici\u00f3n en base a los nuevos bonos que Argentina hab\u00eda emitido d\u00edas antes.<\/h6>\n
Pero ahora\u00a0Argentina volvi\u00f3 a exhibir un riesgo pa\u00eds en niveles similares\u00a0<\/b>a los que ten\u00eda tras reestructurar su deuda,\u00a0producto del\u00a0<\/b>rally<\/b><\/i>\u00a0que mostraron los bonos desde la llegada de\u00a0<\/b>Javier Milei\u00a0<\/b><\/a>al gobierno.\u00a0<\/b><\/h6>\n
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El interrogante, entonces, es\u00a0cu\u00e1nto m\u00e1s puede comprimir este indicador.<\/b><\/h6>\n

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Analistas consultados por\u00a0<\/b>Bloomberg L\u00ednea\u00a0<\/b><\/i>ven margen para que el desplome del riesgo pa\u00eds siga.\u00a0<\/b><\/h6>\n
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De hecho, advirtieron que\u00a0es fundamental que se observe una mayor compresi\u00f3n deeste indicador para no caer en default en 2025<\/b>, cuando comienzan a crecer con fuerza los pagos de servicios de deuda.<\/h6>\n
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\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Vencimientos de Argentina<\/span>Fuente:\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 JP Morgan\u00a0 <\/span>Lo concreto es que el Emerging Markets Bond Index <\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0(EMBI), nombre t\u00e9cnico del riesgo pa\u00eds, cay\u00f3 31,7% en lo que va de 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cNosotros esper\u00e1bamos que el EMBI se sit\u00fae en 1.200 puntos para mitad de a\u00f1o, pero no supon\u00edamos esta velocidad: ahora creemos que puede estar en 1.100 puntos a mitad de a\u00f1o, para cerrar el 2024 en el rango de 800 a 900 puntos<\/b>, si se elimina el d\u00e9ficit fiscal financiero o, al menos, se consigue un super\u00e1vit fiscal primario de entre 0,5 y 1 punto de producto\u201d, destac\u00f3\u00a0Pablo Repetto<\/b>, jefe de research en el br\u00f3ker\u00a0Aurum Valores<\/b>.<\/h6>\n

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Para tomar como referencia, hoy\u00a0Argentina es el tercer pa\u00eds con mayor\u00a0<\/b>spread\u00a0<\/b><\/i>en Latinoam\u00e9rica<\/b>, solo superado por Bolivia y Venezuela. Ecuador, que empez\u00f3 el a\u00f1o con un riesgo pa\u00eds superior, logr\u00f3 comprimir hasta 1.180 puntos (valor al cierre del 4 de abril).<\/h6>\n
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En tanto,\u00a0El Salvador, que en algunos tramos de 2022 lleg\u00f3 a tener nieves peores a los de Argentina, hoy tiene EMBI en 656 unidades, la mitad de Argentina.<\/b><\/h6>\n

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\u201cA mediano plazo,\u00a0la ejecuci\u00f3n del plan fiscal<\/b>, que fue muy exitosa en el primer bimestre del a\u00f1o,\u00a0deber\u00eda lograr un car\u00e1cter m\u00e1s sostenible o duradero en el tiempo<\/b>, lo cual requiere aprobar alguna Ley mediante el Congreso y percibir que los cambios estructurales puedan ser permanentes\u201d, destac\u00f3\u00a0Pedro Siaba Serrate<\/b>, head of research de\u00a0Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI)<\/b>.<\/h6>\n

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Si se dan estas condiciones, consider\u00f3, \u201c<\/span>el rendimiento de la Argentina podr\u00eda converger a niveles similares a pa\u00edses con una calificaci\u00f3n un escal\u00f3n por encima de la nuestra (B-), tales como Egipto y Turqu\u00eda\u201d<\/b>.<\/span><\/div>\n
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\u00bfQu\u00e9 suceder\u00eda con el riesgo pa\u00eds si sucede eso? Los bonos ir\u00edan a un rendimiento de 9 a 11% y el indicador\u00a0se ubicar\u00eda entre 500 y 700 puntos<\/b>\u00a0b\u00e1sicos.\u00a0\u201cPero es una meta que no es de corto plazo<\/b>\u201d, aclar\u00f3 Siaba Serrate.<\/h6>\n

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Por su parte,\u00a0Leonardo Chialva<\/b>, socio en\u00a0Delphos Investment<\/b>, proyect\u00f3 que el primer destino ser\u00eda llevar el riesgo pa\u00eds a\u00a0entre 800 y 1000 puntos.\u00a0<\/b>\u201cA partir de ah\u00ed se empieza a revisar la perspectiva de largo plazo del pa\u00eds y cambios estructurales. Pero el mero hecho de volver al planeta Tierra nos da el privilegio de estar entre los\u00a0peores alumnos del mundo, que cotizan a esos niveles\u201d,\u00a0<\/b>mencion\u00f3.<\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n

M\u00e1s a futuro, Chialva sostuvo que el pr\u00f3ximo paso aparece el\u00a0\u201cdesaf\u00edo\u201d\u00a0<\/b>de demostrar que \u201cno solo volvimos al planeta Tierra sino que adem\u00e1s podemos estar entre los alumnos del medio\u201d.<\/b><\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00bfPor qu\u00e9 es importante que caiga el riesgo pa\u00eds?<\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ante la consulta de cu\u00e1nto puede caer el riesgo pa\u00eds si las cosas salen bien, Sebasti\u00e1n Menescaldi, director asociado en Estudio EcoGo, respondi\u00f3: \u201cInvierto la consigna: es imprescindible que caiga el riesgo pa\u00eds para que las cosas salga bien<\/b>\u201d.<\/h6>\n

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El analista detall\u00f3 que\u00a0Argentina tiene vencimientos por US$9.500 millones con bonistas en 2025<\/b>\u00a0y que ser\u00e1 necesario poder volver al mercado para no caer en default. \u201cInicialmente, deber\u00edan conseguir un Repo o deuda de corto plazo.\u00a0La idea es que esa tasa cara es transitoria y no conviene tener deuda larga por su costo. No emitir\u00eda a 10 a\u00f1os todav\u00eda, sino que optar\u00eda por 2\/3 a\u00f1os\u201d,\u00a0<\/b>reflexion\u00f3.<\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n

Chialva, por su parte, consider\u00f3 que\u00a0una posible salida a este dilema ser\u00eda un canje voluntario de los bonos a 2030.<\/b><\/h6>\n

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Otro motivo por el cual es importante bajar el riesgo pa\u00eds es que Argentina en su conjunto pueda acceder a tasas de financiamiento razonables: \u201cA partir del 2\u00b0 trimestre de 2024 la econom\u00eda rebotar\u00e1, potenciada por la reversi\u00f3n de la sequ\u00eda y los efectos expansivos del ajuste fiscal, v\u00eda crowding in del cr\u00e9dito al sector privado y menor prima de riesgo pa\u00eds\u201d,\u00a0<\/b>se entusiasma un informe de Facimex Valores.<\/h6>\n<\/article>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Se derrumba el riesgo pa\u00eds de Argentina y el mercado ve margen para una mayor compresi\u00f3n \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":342,"featured_media":8536,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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