{"id":7548,"date":"2023-11-01T13:59:19","date_gmt":"2023-11-01T17:59:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/?p=7548"},"modified":"2023-11-19T14:06:57","modified_gmt":"2023-11-19T19:06:57","slug":"wall-street-augura-el-futuro-del-sp-500-para-el-proximo-ano","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/en\/wall-street-augura-el-futuro-del-sp-500-para-el-proximo-ano\/","title":{"rendered":"Wall Street augura el futuro del S&P 500 para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o."},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Wall
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Puede ser que el peor momento del ciclo de subidas de tasas ya haya pasado, pero los principales estrategas siguen esperando que las acciones ofrezcan una rentabilidad por debajo de la tendencia.<\/h5>\n<\/div>\n
Los principales estrategas prev\u00e9n en gran medida que el mercado burs\u00e1til siga subiendo pero se mantenga muy por debajo de sus tasas hist\u00f3ricas el a\u00f1o que viene, seg\u00fan varias previsiones para 2024 publicadas esta semana, ya que las acciones siguen recuper\u00e1ndose de las brutales p\u00e9rdidas del a\u00f1o pasado pero luchan por volver a sus m\u00e1ximos de mediados de la pandemia.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs<\/a>\u00a0prev\u00e9 que el\u00a0S&P 500\u00a0<\/a>se sit\u00fae en los 4.700 puntos a finales del pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o, seg\u00fan indicaron estrategas dirigidos por\u00a0David Kostin\u00a0<\/a>en una nota a clientes publicada el mi\u00e9rcoles, un 4,4% por encima de su nivel actual de 4.503 puntos y a\u00fan por debajo del m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico alcanzado por el \u00edndice de referencia en enero de 2022, los 4.797 puntos.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Goldman lidera el creciente consenso en\u00a0Wall Street<\/a>\u00a0de que las acciones van a seguir subiendo en 2023, pero no lograr\u00e1n superar los esquivos m\u00e1ximos alcanzados justo antes de que se dispararan los tipos de inter\u00e9s.<\/strong><\/p>\n

El siempre cauteloso estratega estadounidense de\u00a0Morgan Stanley<\/a>,\u00a0Michael Wilson<\/a>, fij\u00f3 un objetivo de precio de 4.500 para el S&P a finales de 2024, lo que implica que no habr\u00e1 subidas desde hoy en su nota del lunes.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Goldman
Goldman lidera el creciente consenso en Wall Street de que las acciones van a seguir subiendo en 2023.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Wells Fargo<\/a>\u00a0Investment Institute y UBS Global Wealth Management tambi\u00e9n est\u00e1n en l\u00ednea con las proyecciones de crecimiento bastante modestas, ya que Wells Fargo tiene un objetivo de 4.600 a 4.800 (entre un 2,2% y un 6,6% al alza con respecto a ahora) y un objetivo de 4.700 para UBS (un 4,4% al alza).<\/strong><\/p>\n

Aunque a\u00fan quedan seis semanas para 2023, las ganancias previstas de entre el 2,2% y el 6,6% para finales de 2024 se sit\u00faan muy por debajo de la rentabilidad media anual t\u00edpica del S&P, que ronda el 10%, excluidos los dividendos.<\/strong><\/p>\n

En gran medida, el motivo de este apagado entusiasmo es la creencia de que las valoraciones de la renta variable tienen un recorrido al alza limitado tras el repunte del 18% registrado por el S&P en lo que va de a\u00f1o a pesar del estancamiento de los beneficios empresariales; Wilson explic\u00f3 que es probable que el \u00edndice crezca hasta su hist\u00f3ricamente inflada relaci\u00f3n precio\/beneficios a medida que los tipos de inter\u00e9s se \u00abnormalicen\u00bb.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Goldman esboz\u00f3 varios escenarios extremos, pero plausibles, para 2024, en los que las acciones podr\u00edan oscilar de forma salvaje.\u00a0Seg\u00fan el banco, el S&P puede subir hasta los 5.000 puntos si la\u00a0Reserva Federal<\/a>\u00a0recorta las tasas antes de lo previsto (el mercado considera actualmente el pr\u00f3ximo mes de mayo como el momento m\u00e1s probable para ello) o podr\u00eda caer hasta un m\u00ednimo de dos a\u00f1os de 3.700 puntos si la econom\u00eda entra en recesi\u00f3n.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Goldman
Seg\u00fan el banco, el S&P puede subir hasta los 5.000 puntos si la Reserva Federal recorta las tasas antes de lo previsto.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

El S&P, al igual que el\u00a0Dow Jones<\/a>\u00a0Industrial Average y el\u00a0Nasdaq<\/a>, de fuerte componente tecnol\u00f3gico, acaba de registrar su peor a\u00f1o desde el punto \u00e1lgido de la Gran Recesi\u00f3n en 2008. Las p\u00e9rdidas de 2022 se produjeron cuando la Reserva Federal respondi\u00f3 a la inflaci\u00f3n r\u00e9cord y subi\u00f3 el tipo objetivo de los fondos federales desde casi cero, donde se encontraba desde principios de 2020, iniciando la campa\u00f1a de pol\u00edtica monetaria m\u00e1s agresiva desde principios de la d\u00e9cada de 1980.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Desde entonces, las tasas se situaron entre el 5,25% y el 5,5%, el nivel m\u00e1s alto desde 2001, aunque los beneficios empresariales demostraron ser m\u00e1s resistentes de lo que muchos tem\u00edan al principio del ciclo de subidas de tasas.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Las campa\u00f1as de endurecimiento suelen preceder a las recesiones, ya que el aumento de los costes de los pr\u00e9stamos merma los beneficios de las empresas y frena el gasto de los consumidores, pero la econom\u00eda estadounidense mostr\u00f3 un crecimiento de la producci\u00f3n y un desempleo en l\u00ednea con los niveles hist\u00f3ricos a lo largo de 2023.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ed Yardeni, de la firma independiente Yardeni Research, prev\u00e9 que el S&P alcance los 5.400 puntos a finales de 2024, un 20% por encima de su precio actual y un 13% por encima de su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico anterior.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\u00cdndice
El S&P, al igual que el Dow Jones Industrial Average y el Nasdaq, de fuerte componente tecnol\u00f3gico, acaba de registrar su peor a\u00f1o desde el punto \u00e1lgido de la Gran Recesi\u00f3n en 2008.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

La brutal liquidaci\u00f3n del a\u00f1o pasado se debi\u00f3 al \u00abtemor generalizado a que el aumento de la inflaci\u00f3n obligara a la Reserva Federal a subir los tipos de inter\u00e9s hasta niveles que provocaran una contracci\u00f3n del cr\u00e9dito y una recesi\u00f3n\u00bb, explic\u00f3 Yardeni en una nota el lunes.\u00a0Pero la econom\u00eda a\u00fan no dio se\u00f1ales de que se vaya a materializar una recesi\u00f3n y el S&P deber\u00eda continuar en una senda de fuertes ganancias en caso de que esto siga as\u00ed, seg\u00fan Yardeni.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/i>Forbes US<\/i><\/a>\/<\/p>\n<\/article>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Puede ser que el peor momento del ciclo de subidas de tasas ya haya pasado, pero los principales estrategas siguen esperando que las acciones ofrezcan una rentabilidad por debajo de la tendencia. Los principales estrategas prev\u00e9n en gran medida que el mercado burs\u00e1til siga subiendo pero se mantenga muy por debajo de sus tasas hist\u00f3ricas […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":342,"featured_media":7062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[550,502,494,495],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","category-eeuu","category-noticias","category-tvradiomiami"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWall Street augura el futuro del S&P 500 para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o. - Radio Miami<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/en\/wall-street-augura-el-futuro-del-sp-500-para-el-proximo-ano\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Wall Street augura el futuro del S&P 500 para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o. - Radio Miami\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Puede ser que el peor momento del ciclo de subidas de tasas ya haya pasado, pero los principales estrategas siguen esperando que las acciones ofrezcan una rentabilidad por debajo de la tendencia. 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