{"id":4318,"date":"2023-02-08T10:23:08","date_gmt":"2023-02-08T09:23:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/?p=4318"},"modified":"2023-02-09T03:51:10","modified_gmt":"2023-02-09T02:51:10","slug":"eeuu-economia-crecio-21-en-2022-pero-riesgos-persisten-entrara-o-no-en-recesion-en-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/en\/eeuu-economia-crecio-21-en-2022-pero-riesgos-persisten-entrara-o-no-en-recesion-en-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"EEUU : Econom\u00eda creci\u00f3 2,1% en 2022 pero riesgos persisten&#8230;\u00bbentrar\u00e1 o no en recesi\u00f3n en 2023 ? \u00bb ."},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"t-content__dates\">\n<p class=\"m-pub-dates\">\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"t-content__main-media\">\n<figure class=\"m-figure m-figure--16x9\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/s.rfi.fr\/media\/display\/246cdabe-9d8a-11ed-9a48-005056a90321\/w:388\/p:16x9\/1631a61170e2d7fb2094e84196bf9a0fcf2d66e9.webp 388w,https:\/\/s.rfi.fr\/media\/display\/246cdabe-9d8a-11ed-9a48-005056a90321\/w:720\/p:16x9\/1631a61170e2d7fb2094e84196bf9a0fcf2d66e9.webp 720w,https:\/\/s.rfi.fr\/media\/display\/246cdabe-9d8a-11ed-9a48-005056a90321\/w:980\/p:16x9\/1631a61170e2d7fb2094e84196bf9a0fcf2d66e9.webp 980w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1023px) 100vw, (min-width: 1024px) 980px\" \/><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"m-figure__img lazy aligncenter\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1023px) 100vw, (min-width: 1024px) 980px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s.rfi.fr\/media\/display\/246cdabe-9d8a-11ed-9a48-005056a90321\/w:388\/p:16x9\/1631a61170e2d7fb2094e84196bf9a0fcf2d66e9.jpg 388w,https:\/\/s.rfi.fr\/media\/display\/246cdabe-9d8a-11ed-9a48-005056a90321\/w:720\/p:16x9\/1631a61170e2d7fb2094e84196bf9a0fcf2d66e9.jpg 720w,https:\/\/s.rfi.fr\/media\/display\/246cdabe-9d8a-11ed-9a48-005056a90321\/w:980\/p:16x9\/1631a61170e2d7fb2094e84196bf9a0fcf2d66e9.jpg 980w\" alt=\"Una zona comercial de Birmingham (Michigan) el 23 de diciembre de 2022 en la temporada de compras por las fiestas de fin de a\u00f1o\" width=\"724\" height=\"407\" \/><\/picture><figcaption class=\"m-figure__caption\"><span class=\"a-media-legend\">Una zona comercial de Birmingham (Michigan) el 23 de diciembre de 2022 en la temporada de compras por las fiestas de fin de a\u00f1o<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"a-media-legend\">\u00a9 JEFF<\/p>\n<p><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<h6 class=\"t-content__chapo\"><span class=\"t-location\">Washington (AFP) \u2013\u00a0<\/span>La econom\u00eda de Estados Unidos cerr\u00f3 con crecimiento de 2,1% en 2022, sostenida por el consumo de la poblaci\u00f3n pese al menor poder adquisitivo en un contexto de inflaci\u00f3n, y ahora la duda es si la mayor potencia mundial entrar\u00e1 o no en recesi\u00f3n en 2023.<\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 1.1em; font-weight: bold;\">Los datos oficiales publicados el martes mostraron que el PIB se expandi\u00f3 2,1% en 2022 comparado con 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"t-content__body u-clearfix\" data-empty-p=\"false\">\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>En 2021, siempre seg\u00fan cifras del Departamento de Comercio que lleva los datos de crecimiento, el pa\u00eds tuvo la mayor expansi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica anual desde 1984: 5,9%. Claro que hay un efecto estad\u00edstico, ya que la base de comparaci\u00f3n era el a\u00f1o 2020, cuando la pandemia provoc\u00f3 la mayor retracci\u00f3n del PIB desde 1946 (-3,5%) y dos meses de recesi\u00f3n.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>En el cuarto trimestre del a\u00f1o pasado, la econom\u00eda estadounidense creci\u00f3 2,9% en proyecci\u00f3n anual, la medida utilizada en Estados Unidos, que proyecta el crecimiento a 12 meses en base a las condiciones prevalentes al momento de la medici\u00f3n.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>En otros pa\u00edses se compara simplemente el crecimiento trimestre sobre trimestre, en datos desestacionalizados. Si se aplicara esta f\u00f3rmula, la expansi\u00f3n ser\u00eda de 0,7%.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>El presidente Joe Biden, que pronto anunciar\u00e1 si buscar\u00e1 la reelecci\u00f3n, salud\u00f3 las \u00abmuy buenas noticias\u00bb econ\u00f3micas durante un discurso en Springfield (Virginie), cerca de Washington, y consider\u00f3 que son \u00abla prueba\u00bb de que su plan econ\u00f3mico funciona. Tambi\u00e9n se congratul\u00f3 de que el pa\u00eds haya evitado hasta ahora una recesi\u00f3n.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>El PIB march\u00f3 mejor de lo esperado, resumi\u00f3 la analista Rubeela Farooqi, economista jefe de HFE.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>El PIB de Estados Unidos se hab\u00eda recuperado ya en proyecci\u00f3n anual en el tercer trimestre del a\u00f1o pasado (3,2%) luego de dos trimestres de retracci\u00f3n.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>Aunque t\u00e9cnicamente algunos consideran dos trimestres de ca\u00edda como una recesi\u00f3n, muchos, desde el gobierno hasta numerosos economistas, tambi\u00e9n toman en cuenta la solidez del mercado laboral, entre otros factores, y se\u00f1alan que no hubo recesi\u00f3n en Estados Unidos el a\u00f1o pasado.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>&#8211; \u00abDebilidad\u00bb-<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>El consumo, motor del crecimiento de Estados Unidos, permaneci\u00f3 s\u00f3lido a fines de 2022, a pesar de los incrementos de tasas decididos por la Reserva Federal para tratar de enfriar la econom\u00eda y liberar presi\u00f3n sobre los precios.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>Aumentar las tasas supone encarecer el cr\u00e9dito, y por lo tanto dificulta el consumo y la inversi\u00f3n.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>Aunque hubo consumo, \u00abal final del cuarto trimestre\u00bb de 2022 \u00abvimos debilidades a nivel econ\u00f3mico\u00bb, explic\u00f3 a la AFP, Gregory Daco, economista jefe de EY Parthenon, quien cit\u00f3 en particular las ventas minoristas y la producci\u00f3n industrial.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>Adem\u00e1s, \u00abel mercado laboral, que est\u00e1 relativamente s\u00f3lido, se est\u00e1 debilitando\u00bb, a\u00f1adi\u00f3.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>Los consumidores sienten la erosi\u00f3n de su poder de compra por la inflaci\u00f3n y el aumento del costo del cr\u00e9dito.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>Pero incluso con el cr\u00e9dito m\u00e1s caro, los pedidos de bienes duraderos -que incluyen grandes compras de empresas- aumentaron sensiblemente en diciembre sobre noviembre, un 5,6%.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>Y el fen\u00f3meno de dificultad para contratar persiste en las empresas en general, aunque algunos sectores como el tecnol\u00f3gico -que incorpor\u00f3 masivamente personal durante la pandemia- procedieron a despedir a decenas de miles de personas en las \u00faltimas semanas.<\/h6>\n<h2>2023, a\u00f1o de incertidumbre<\/h2>\n<h6>El espectro de una recesi\u00f3n en 2023 es evocado por muchos, que se preguntan si la econom\u00eda se expandir\u00e1 o todo lo contrario.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>\u00abLa econom\u00eda estadounidense sufrir\u00e1 una ligera recesi\u00f3n en 2023, impulsada por la pol\u00edtica monetaria restrictiva de la Fed\u00bb, anticipa Ryan Sweet, economista jefe de Oxford Economics, en una nota de an\u00e1lisis en la que prev\u00e9 una contracci\u00f3n en el segundo trimestre.<\/h6>\n<figure class=\"m-figure m-figure--original\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/s.rfi.fr\/media\/display\/2432e0fc-9d8a-11ed-8c60-005056a90321\/bdea38f9af2800302d2cf44e6989851dd28dbc9c.webp\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"m-figure__img lazy loaded\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" sizes=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s.rfi.fr\/media\/display\/2432e0fc-9d8a-11ed-8c60-005056a90321\/bdea38f9af2800302d2cf44e6989851dd28dbc9c.jpg\" alt=\"La quinta avenida en Nueva York durante la temporada de compras de fin de a\u00f1o el 21 de diciembre de 2022\" data-ll-status=\"loaded\" \/><\/picture><figcaption class=\"m-figure__caption\"><span class=\"a-media-legend\">La quinta avenida en Nueva York durante la temporada de compras de fin de a\u00f1o el 21 de diciembre de 2022<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"a-media-legend\">\u00a9 Ed JONES \/ AFP<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>\u00abPor el momento, los indicadores econ\u00f3micos apuntan m\u00e1s bien a una recesi\u00f3n, que habr\u00eda comenzado a gestarse a inicios de a\u00f1o, incluso en diciembre-enero\u00bb, y tal vez con destrucci\u00f3n de empleos desde enero, remarca Daco de su lado.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>Daco reconoce que el factor particular y \u00fanico de este ciclo quiz\u00e1 recesivo, es la fortaleza del mercado laboral, con un desempleo de 3,5%, m\u00ednimo hist\u00f3rico.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>\u00abEs el elemento clave que sostiene el consumo (&#8230;) pilar de la econom\u00eda estadounidense\u00bb, a\u00f1adi\u00f3.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>\u00abEl principal escudo protector que todos se\u00f1alan es el mercado laboral\u00bb, que sumado a los ahorros acumulados durante la pandemia -cuando bajaron los gastos y hubo millonarias ayudas federales a los hogares-, permite a los estadounidenses continuar consumiendo, destac\u00f3 Matt Colyar, economista de Moody&#8217;s.<\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6>Colyar espera un crecimiento d\u00e9bil y habr\u00e1 que \u00abafinar el ojo para decir si se trata o no de una recesi\u00f3n\u00bb, con un pron\u00f3stico de 1% de expansi\u00f3n del PIB en el a\u00f1o.<\/h6>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Una zona comercial de Birmingham (Michigan) el 23 de diciembre de 2022 en la temporada de compras por las fiestas de fin de a\u00f1o\u00a0\u00a9 JEFF Washington (AFP) \u2013\u00a0La econom\u00eda de Estados Unidos cerr\u00f3 con crecimiento de 2,1% en 2022, sostenida por el consumo de la poblaci\u00f3n pese al menor poder adquisitivo en un contexto de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4184,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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