{"id":13418,"date":"2026-01-30T09:10:24","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T12:10:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/?p=13418"},"modified":"2026-01-30T17:18:25","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T20:18:25","slug":"enrique-guillermo-avogadro-de-la-licitacion-al-apocalipsis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/en\/enrique-guillermo-avogadro-de-la-licitacion-al-apocalipsis\/","title":{"rendered":"Enrique Guillermo Avogadro ; De la licitaci\u00f3n al Apocalipsis"},"content":{"rendered":"

De la licitaci\u00f3n al Apocalipsis<\/h3>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/div>\n

Enrique Guillermo Avogadro <\/b><\/div>\n

(Nota N\u00b0 1031)<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

\u201cLa guerra es el arte de destruir hombres, la pol\u00edtica es el arte de enga\u00f1arlos.\u201d Jean le Rond d\u2019Alembert<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

El inusual per\u00edodo de\u00a0\u2018pax mile\u00edsta\u2019<\/i>\u00a0se vio sacudido por la licitaci\u00f3n de una empresa privada para comprar los ca\u00f1os para construir un gasoducto hasta la costa atl\u00e1ntica. Con una precio inferior – 40% -, triunf\u00f3 una gran compa\u00f1\u00eda india. Techint, la multinacional italo-argentina que, tard\u00edamente, ofreci\u00f3 reducir su cotizaci\u00f3n hasta igualarlo, reaccion\u00f3 con furia. Se reabri\u00f3 as\u00ed el debate entre los aperturistas, con el Gobierno como portaestandarte, y los proteccionistas que, como siempre, apelan al cuidado de la industria y del empleo, pero sus argumentos se vieron perjudicados tanto por la enorme diferencia cuanto porque ambas empresas importan su materia prima (la chapa) de China y Brasil, respectivamente.<\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n

Si bien es cierto que la cancha est\u00e1 a\u00fan inclinada contra los productores locales por los gravosos impuestos, la deficiente infraestructura vial y la obsoleta legislaci\u00f3n laboral, nada \u2013 salvo los recientes antecedentes de corrupci\u00f3n rampante \u2013 puede justificar tama\u00f1a variaci\u00f3n, especialmente en un pa\u00eds en que todos estamos hartos de empresarios que s\u00f3lo saben cazar en el zool\u00f3gico y pescar en la ba\u00f1adera, para vendernos malo y caro.<\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n

En estos d\u00edas de tambores b\u00e9licos que retumban desde el Golfo P\u00e9rsico y el Caribe, Taiwan festeja la purga desatada por Xi Jinping sobre la c\u00fapula del Ej\u00e9rcito, ya que llevar\u00e1 tiempo recomponerla y China pueda volver a su pol\u00edtica de hostigamiento. Donald Trump, empe\u00f1ado en dejar su huella antes de que el tiempo lo expulse del Sal\u00f3n Oval, amenaza con atacar Ir\u00e1n por su programa nuclear, su industria misil\u00edstica y su apoyo a milicias desestabilizadoras. Tanto como sucedi\u00f3 en las v\u00edsperas de la extracci\u00f3n de Nicol\u00e1s Maduro de Caracas, al Presidente de EEUU le quedan pocas opciones f\u00e1ciles, y ninguna de ellas incluye retirarse despu\u00e9s de ejecutar este inmenso despliegue aeronaval.<\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n

La primera es ordenar ataques selectivos y precisos contra las bases de la terrorista Guardia Revolucionaria (CGRI), sitios de misiles y el programa nuclear; o sea, bajas civiles m\u00ednimas, derrocamiento del r\u00e9gimen debilitado y una transici\u00f3n a la democracia, con Ir\u00e1n reintegr\u00e1ndose al mundo, pero Irak y Libia vieron caer dictadores para dar paso a \u00e9pocas de caos y sangre. En otra, parecida a la de Venezuela pero impensable por las gigantescas disimilitudes entre ambos reg\u00edmenes, el poder actual sobrevive pero se modera: una acci\u00f3n r\u00e1pida de EEUU lo deja en pie, aunque forzado a cortar el apoyo a sus milicias proxys, frenar sus programas nucleares y bal\u00edsticos, y relajar la represi\u00f3n; no contenta a los iran\u00edes que anhelan libertad, pero evita el colapso. En la tercera, el r\u00e9gimen cae pero es sustituido por una junta militar; las protestas erosionaron su poder, pero el Estado profundo de seguridad defiende el\u00a0statu quo<\/i>\u00a0con brutalidad.<\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n

El escenario m\u00e1s temido es el caos tras el derrumbe, con una guerra civil motivada en tensiones \u00e9tnicas (kurdos, baluchis) en un pa\u00eds de 93 millones de habitantes. Qatar y Arabia Saudita ven cercana una pesadilla humanitaria y millones de refugiados. Israel celebrar\u00eda el fin del r\u00e9gimen, pero nadie quiere un Ir\u00e1n fragmentado. En Medio Oriente, como en Latinoam\u00e9rica, el vac\u00edo de poder invita al desastre.<\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n

Pero tambi\u00e9n pueden producirse represalias iran\u00edes contra las fuerzas y los aliados de EE.UU. Teher\u00e1n no iguala el poder aeronaval de Trump, pero tiene miles de misiles y drones, y las bases de EEUU en Bahrein, Qatar o Jordania e infraestructuras como las saud\u00edes de 2019, lo experimentar\u00edan. Los aliados \u00e1rabes tiemblan, porque esa respuesta elevar\u00eda el precio del petr\u00f3leo. Los ayatollahs podr\u00edan minar el estrecho de Ormuz, una amenaza latente desde la guerra entre Irak e Ir\u00e1n; es un cuello de botella que podr\u00eda bloquearse para el 25% del petr\u00f3leo y GNL mundiales. Ir\u00e1n ya practic\u00f3 despliegues r\u00e1pidos; el comercio global sufrir\u00eda y los precios se disparar\u00edan. Otra posibilidad ser\u00eda el hundimiento de buques de EEUU con \u201cataques de enjambre\u201d, con drones explosivos y lanchas r\u00e1pidas abrumando las defensas; la Armada del CGRI, experta en asimetr\u00edas, podr\u00eda lograrlo, humillando as\u00ed a EE.UU como sucedi\u00f3 con el USS Cole (2000) y el USS Stark (1987).<\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n

Estos escenarios muestran la extrema imprevisibilidad actual: con una inmensa flota aeronaval preparada, Trump est\u00e1 obligado a actuar, aunque desate consecuencias globales, para no perder m\u00e1s apoyo interno, como el que ya sufre por la brutal pol\u00edtica anti-inmigratoria y la debilidad del d\u00f3lar, que ponga en mayor riesgo a\u00fan su actual control del Capitolio en las elecciones legislativas de noviembre; si las perdiera, el efecto \u2013 que podr\u00eda incluir un\u00a0impeachment<\/i>\u00a0– repercutir\u00e1 tambi\u00e9n en la Argentina, aliada incondicional del Presidente, a cuyo apoyo\u00a0 financiero tanto debemos.<\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n

En cambio, donde seguramente obtendr\u00e1 \u00e9xito ser\u00e1 en su enfrentamiento incruento contra el r\u00e9gimen marxista de Cuba, ya que sus presiones sobre el gobierno de M\u00e9xico (Claudia Sheinbaum) han producido el estrangulamiento total del \u00fanico cord\u00f3n umbilical \u2013 el regalo de petr\u00f3leo, que tambi\u00e9n le hac\u00eda Venezuela hasta hace pocos d\u00edas, tras la obligada deserci\u00f3n de Rusia e Ir\u00e1n – que permite sobrevivir a Miguel D\u00edaz-Canel, el criminal continuador del castrismo, jaqueado por la terminal crisis socio-econ\u00f3mica, agravada por los diarios apagones de veinte horas de duraci\u00f3n.<\/h6>\n

.<\/p>\n

Bs.As., 31 Ene 26<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

De la licitaci\u00f3n al Apocalipsis   Enrique Guillermo Avogadro (Nota N\u00b0 1031) \u00a0 \u201cLa guerra es el arte de destruir hombres, la pol\u00edtica es el arte de enga\u00f1arlos.\u201d Jean le Rond d\u2019Alembert   El inusual per\u00edodo de\u00a0\u2018pax mile\u00edsta\u2019\u00a0se vio sacudido por la licitaci\u00f3n de una empresa privada para comprar los ca\u00f1os para construir un gasoducto […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":342,"featured_media":13419,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[882],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-enrique-g-avogadro"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEnrique Guillermo Avogadro ; 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