{"id":12865,"date":"2025-10-24T10:11:34","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T13:11:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/?p=12865"},"modified":"2025-10-24T18:02:29","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T21:02:29","slug":"enrique-guillermo-avogadro-horas-oscuras","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/en\/enrique-guillermo-avogadro-horas-oscuras\/","title":{"rendered":"Enrique Guillermo Avogadro. Horas Oscuras"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5><strong><em>\u201cLa derrota suele ser pasajera. Es la claudicaci\u00f3n lo que la vuelve permanente\u201d.<\/em><\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><strong><em>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><em>Marilyn von Savant<\/em><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Como cualquiera medianamente informado, he dejado de creer en las encuestas pol\u00edticas que, por diferentes razones, han perdido la capacidad de medir la opini\u00f3n de las sociedades. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Y en contra de la interpretaci\u00f3n que pudiera darse al t\u00edtulo de esta nota, estoy convencido que ma\u00f1ana La Libertad Avanza y sus aliados obtendr\u00e1n un resultado mucho mejor que el que pod\u00eda preverse hace unos d\u00edas. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>En cuanto a la probabilidad de que Donald Trump, en caso de una abrumadora derrota del Gobierno, retire el gigantesco apoyo pol\u00edtico y financiero que est\u00e1 otorgando a la administraci\u00f3n de Javier Milei, creo que es nula, dado que a\u00fan restar\u00e1n a \u00e9ste, en cualquier caso, dos a\u00f1os de mandato presidencial. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Y esa certidumbre surge de la necesidad de los EEUU de contar con un aliado importante en Am\u00e9rica Latina, rol que s\u00f3lo la Argentina puede ocupar actualmente por los desencuentros entre Washington y Bras\u00edlia.<\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Ya debieran haber entendido todos aqu\u00e9llos que buscan una crisis terminal del Gobierno argentino \u2013 el club de los devaluadores, quienes vocean \u201cCristina libre\u201d, algunos industriales locales renuentes a competir, empresarios que ser\u00e1n juzgados en la \u201ccausa Cuadernos\u201d, etc. \u2013 que apostar contra el \u201cdue\u00f1o\u201d de los d\u00f3lares s\u00f3lo puede derivar en grandes p\u00e9rdidas.<\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Dicho esto, vamos al panorama internacional. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Comencemos por el cese del fuego establecido, como proleg\u00f3meno al plan de doce puntos firmado entre Israel y Ham\u00e1s, que sigue en cuesti\u00f3n por las agresiones de la organizaci\u00f3n terrorista a la propia poblaci\u00f3n de Gaza. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Si bien no ha sido a\u00fan desarmada y conserva decenas de militantes fan\u00e1ticos, lo cierto es que ha perdido gran capacidad operativa y financiera por la obligada deserci\u00f3n de Ir\u00e1n a partir del bombardeo de sus instalaciones nucleares, y del abandono de Rusia, concentrada en su guerra de agresi\u00f3n. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Por otra parte, las monarqu\u00edas sunnitas vecinas y Turqu\u00eda, que ha adquirido relevancia, tampoco quieren que contin\u00fae la incertidumbre en Medio Oriente, ya que buscan consolidar el clima favorable a los negocios internacionales.<\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Trump, que ve\u00eda como probable escindir a Rusia de China, se ha hartado de Vladimir Putin &#8211; \u00a1era hora! \u2013 y de su pol\u00edtica de ganar tiempo mientras contin\u00faa la criminal destrucci\u00f3n de Ucrania; cancel\u00f3 la reuni\u00f3n prevista con \u00e9ste y se sum\u00f3 a las sanciones que la Uni\u00f3n Europea impuso a las petroleras rusas que, de todas maneras, parecen encontrar una salida al mercado a trav\u00e9s de China \u2013 que est\u00e1 acumulando sorprendentes stocks \u2013 y de India. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Pero la realidad es que Putin no tiene otra alternativa que continuar su avance; ha invertido gigantescas sumas e horrorosos recursos humanos en su guerra y eso convierte en inviable una retirada a las l\u00edneas fronterizas anteriores, porque el costo pol\u00edtico interno le resultar\u00eda impagable.<\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Est\u00e1 prevista una bilateral entre Xi Jinping y Trump, y el mundo espera que se produzca una distensi\u00f3n en la guerra comercial desatada entre ambas potencias, que tantas alteraciones produce en el comercio internacional. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>En particular, descarto por d\u00e9cadas la probabilidad de una invasi\u00f3n continental a Taiwan, que s\u00f3lo producir\u00eda m\u00e1s da\u00f1os a la econom\u00eda china, que sufre la ralentizaci\u00f3n de su PBI y crisis poblacionales importantes.<\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Ya en Am\u00e9rica, el resultado del ballotage de Bolivia no trae a\u00fan demasiada tranquilidad a la regi\u00f3n por dos factores: la resistencia de Evo Morales en su refugio en el Chapare, pese a la brutal ca\u00edda del apoyo popular a su MAS, que lo ha dejado con s\u00f3lo el 10% de las bancas legislativas, y la compleja actitud de Edman Lara, Vicepresidente electo, que insiste en ser el due\u00f1o de los votos que llevaron a Rodrigo Paz a la Presidencia. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Pese al fuerte apoyo que prometi\u00f3 EEUU, el futuro depende de la habilidad para construir alianzas con las fuerzas de Jorge \u201cTuto\u201d Quiroga y de Samuel Doria, ambos de derechas, para superar la crisis terminal del pa\u00eds.<\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>La situaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s compleja se desarrolla en Venezuela, y se ha extendido a Colombia. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Trump ha desplegado un impresionante operativo aeronaval en el Caribe sur, incluido al r\u00e9gimen usurpador en la lista de organizaciones terroristas, autorizado operaciones encubiertas de la CIA en territorio venezolano y destruido ya nueve lanchas que transportaban narc\u00f3ticos, inclusive tres en el Pac\u00edfico colombiano. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>El tirano Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, como siempre rid\u00edculo, reaccion\u00f3 avisando que dispone de 5.000 misiles antia\u00e9reos para garantizar su soberan\u00eda y evitar una invasi\u00f3n, pero aqu\u00ed es Trump quien, en lo inmediato, tiene pocas alternativas, porque resulta inviable mantener\u00a0<em>sine die<\/em>\u00a0embarcados a los 4.000 infantes de marina que hoy flotan en aguas caribe\u00f1as a la espera de instrucciones.<\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>La destituci\u00f3n de Dina Boluarte y su reemplazo por el controvertido Jos\u00e9 Jar\u00ed en la Presidencia del Per\u00fa sigue manteniendo al pa\u00eds en vilo, por las protestas que ya han producido muertos. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Y Ecuador, acosado por el narco-terrorismo de los c\u00e1rteles internacionales y por las insurrecciones ind\u00edgenas, vive una situaci\u00f3n parecida.<\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>En Chile la expectativa est\u00e1 centrada en la primera vuelta electoral, el 16 de noviembre, donde se enfrentar\u00e1n, principalmente, dos candidatos de derechas Jos\u00e9 Antonio Kast (Partido Republicano) y Johannes Kaiser (Partido Nacional Libertario), ya que las probabilidades de la centrista Evelyn Matthei (Uni\u00f3n Dem\u00f3crata Independiente) parecen haberse diluido, y la oficialista Jeannette Jara, afiliada al Partido Comunista. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>De ser necesario, el ballotage se disputar\u00e1 el 14 de diciembre, concluyendo el calendario electoral de la regi\u00f3n y definiendo su orientaci\u00f3n futura.<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n<h5 style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Enrique Guillermo Avogadro (Nota N\u00b0 1017)<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bs.As., 25 Oct 25<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cLa derrota suele ser pasajera. Es la claudicaci\u00f3n lo que la vuelve permanente\u201d. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Marilyn von Savant Como cualquiera medianamente informado, he dejado de creer en las encuestas pol\u00edticas que, por diferentes razones, han perdido la capacidad de medir la opini\u00f3n de las sociedades. Y en contra de la interpretaci\u00f3n que pudiera darse al t\u00edtulo de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":342,"featured_media":12847,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1377,514,502,882,543,621,682,541],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dina-boluarte-presidenta-peru","category-donald-trump","category-eeuu","category-enrique-g-avogadro","category-rusia","category-union-europea-2","category-vladimir-putin","category-xi-jinping-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Enrique Guillermo Avogadro. 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