{"id":12801,"date":"2025-10-10T17:11:57","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T20:11:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/?p=12801"},"modified":"2025-10-11T18:02:48","modified_gmt":"2025-10-11T21:02:48","slug":"alejandro-tagliavini-energia-y-mercado-la-fed-y-sus-tasas-neutrales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/en\/alejandro-tagliavini-energia-y-mercado-la-fed-y-sus-tasas-neutrales\/","title":{"rendered":"Alejandro Tagliavini : Energ\u00eda y mercado ; \ufeff\ufeffLa Fed y sus tasas \u00abneutrales\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"block-mises-content\">\n<article class=\"node node--type-article node--view-mode-full node-id-142962\" data-component-id=\"mises:node-article-full\">\n<section class=\"relative w-full clear-both\">\n<div class=\"relative w-full\">\n<div class=\"article-top-content space-y-3.5 mb-4\">\n<h1 class=\"font-myriad flex flex-row flex-wrap items-center gap-1 mb-1.5 font-semibol\" data-component-id=\"mises:element-article-details\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Las tasas de inter\u00e9s deben ser determinadas por el mercado, de acuerdo con sus necesidades, para operar de manera eficiente y distribuir eficazmente los recursos financieros de la sociedad, asignando capital entre diferentes partes interesadas de acuerdo con los resultados de sus inversiones. <\/span><\/h1>\n<h1 data-component-id=\"mises:element-article-details\"><\/h1>\n<h1 class=\"font-myriad flex flex-row flex-wrap items-center gap-1 mb-1.5 font-semibol\" data-component-id=\"mises:element-article-details\"><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Por ejemplo, un emprendedor que logra una TIR del 10 por ciento estar\u00eda dispuesto a pagar un 5 por ciento de inter\u00e9s para expandir su negocio, atrayendo a aquellos inversores que no pueden obtener el 5 por ciento por su capital.<\/span><\/h1>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"prose max-w-none prose-headings:text-misesBlueDark first:prose-p:mt-0 first:prose-ol:mt-0 first:prose-ul:mt-0 first:prose-h2:mt-0 first:prose-h3:mt-0 first:prose-figure:mt-0 prose-th:font-bold prose-figure:my-1 prose-img:my-1 hover:prose-a:no-underline article-body prose-ul:mt-0 prose-ul:inline-block prose-ol:mt-0 prose-ol:inline-block prose-p:mt-0\" data-component-id=\"mises:atom-body-copy\" data-once=\"atomBodyCopy\">\n<h5>Y, por supuesto, es la sociedad, el mercado, la que determina en \u00faltima instancia d\u00f3nde invertir.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>Por ejemplo, si se necesitan m\u00e1s zapatos, la demanda aumenta, lo que provoca un aumento en los precios que permite una TIR m\u00e1s alta para los fabricantes.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>Este virtuoso mecanismo natural significa que las necesidades m\u00e1s b\u00e1sicas y, por lo tanto, las necesidades m\u00e1s demandadas, como la alimentaci\u00f3n, la salud, etc., son las primeras en satisfacerse de la manera m\u00e1s eficiente posible.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>La eficiencia se entiende como el mejor suministro con la mejor relaci\u00f3n calidad\/precio.<\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5>Pero hoy en d\u00eda, las tasas son determinadas b\u00e1sicamente por agencias estatales, a menudo por razones puramente pol\u00edticas, como los bancos centrales, para sus monedas, que son monop\u00f3licas por la sencilla raz\u00f3n de que necesitan ese monopolio para financiarse y sobrevivir.<\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5>De hecho, si los estados compitieran en el mercado como cualquier empresa privada, terminar\u00edan desapareciendo, quebrando, dada su ineficiencia intr\u00ednseca en todas sus actividades.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>Esta ineficiencia surge del hecho de que no ganan sirviendo mejor al p\u00fablico, con mejores productos y servicios, ni corren el riesgo de quebrar debido a un mal desempe\u00f1o.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>En cambio, obtienen coercitivamente (a trav\u00e9s de los impuestos) los recursos que quieren. Ir\u00f3nicamente, si se reduce un impuesto, se llama \u00abcosto fiscal\u00bb.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>De todas las tasas del mundo, la m\u00e1s importante es sin duda la fijada por la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos (Fed), dada la hegemon\u00eda del USD a nivel mundial como consecuencia de ser la primera potencia econ\u00f3mica.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>Hoy, el llamado nivel \u00abneutral\u00bb \u2014un punto de referencia te\u00f3rico que no ayudar\u00eda ni obstaculizar\u00eda la actividad econ\u00f3mica\u2014 para las tasas de inter\u00e9s estar\u00eda en torno al 4 por ciento, m\u00e1s o menos en l\u00ednea con lo que la Fed estableci\u00f3 en su \u00faltima reuni\u00f3n, seg\u00fan muchos analistas.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>Los funcionarios de la Fed, por su parte, han estimado que el nivel \u00abneutral\u00bb es del 3 por ciento y han proyectado una disminuci\u00f3n a este nivel para 2028.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>El banco central redujo su tasa de referencia de fondos federales en 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos a un rango objetivo de 4,00 por ciento a 4,25 por ciento a principios de septiembre, logrando su primera reducci\u00f3n desde diciembre.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>Durante esta \u00faltima reuni\u00f3n del FOMC (Comit\u00e9 Federal de Mercado Abierto de la Fed), la decisi\u00f3n no fue un\u00e1nime.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>El reci\u00e9n nombrado gobernador Stephen Miran emiti\u00f3 el \u00fanico voto disidente, argumentando a favor de un recorte m\u00e1s profundo de 50 puntos b\u00e1sicos.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>Su llamado \u00abpunto\u00bb en la perspectiva de tasas de la Fed fue el m\u00e1s agresivo, proyectando tasas tan bajas como 2,875 por ciento para fines de 2025, muy por debajo del consenso de sus colegas.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>Las proyecciones actualizadas publicadas despu\u00e9s de la reuni\u00f3n mostraron que la mayor\u00eda de los responsables pol\u00edticos esperan dos recortes de tasas m\u00e1s en 2025, lo que subraya el cambio de la Fed hacia el apoyo a un enfriamiento del mercado laboral mientras vigila la inflaci\u00f3n persistente (el aumento del IPC, de hecho).<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>En su conferencia de prensa, el presidente de la Fed, Jerome Powell, declar\u00f3 que la pol\u00edtica monetaria de la Fed sigue siendo restrictiva a pesar del \u00faltimo recorte de tasas, refiri\u00e9ndose a una postura de pol\u00edtica monetaria que busca restringir la actividad econ\u00f3mica y reducir la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>En otras palabras, estos bur\u00f3cratas, incapaces de trabajar en tiempo real, deciden de antemano establecer tasas que son muy altas o muy bajas, como una forma de cobertura, causando una recesi\u00f3n o un aumento en la inflaci\u00f3n de precios.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>Quienes niegan que el mercado sea necesariamente un \u00abmecanismo\u00bb que opera naturalmente en tiempo real no pueden explicar el hecho de que los precios no sean m\u00e1s que un transmisor de informaci\u00f3n.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>En resumen, las proyecciones de la Fed mostraron que la mayor\u00eda de los responsables de la pol\u00edtica monetaria asumen que la econom\u00eda se expandir\u00e1 un 1,6 por ciento este a\u00f1o, por encima del pron\u00f3stico de junio.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>Se proyecta que la tasa de desempleo a fin de a\u00f1o sea del 4,5 por ciento y la inflaci\u00f3n subyacente (el aumento del IPC, para ser precisos) sea del 3,1 por ciento.<\/h5>\n<h5><\/h5>\n<h5>Y ahora, no se espera que los aumentos de precios se desaceleren hasta el objetivo del 2 por ciento de la Fed hasta 2028.<\/h5>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Las tasas de inter\u00e9s deben ser determinadas por el mercado, de acuerdo con sus necesidades, para operar de manera eficiente y distribuir eficazmente los recursos financieros de la sociedad, asignando capital entre diferentes partes interesadas de acuerdo con los resultados de sus inversiones. Por ejemplo, un emprendedor que logra una TIR del 10 por ciento [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":342,"featured_media":12804,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[962,502,1496,1001,579,716],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-alejandro-tagliavini","category-eeuu","category-fed-reserva-federal","category-jerome-powell","category-reserva-federal","category-reserva-federal-eeuu"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Alejandro Tagliavini : Energ\u00eda y mercado ; \ufeff\ufeffLa Fed y sus tasas &quot;neutrales&quot; - Radio Miami<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/en\/alejandro-tagliavini-energia-y-mercado-la-fed-y-sus-tasas-neutrales\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Alejandro Tagliavini : Energ\u00eda y mercado ; \ufeff\ufeffLa Fed y sus tasas &quot;neutrales&quot; - Radio Miami\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Las tasas de inter\u00e9s deben ser determinadas por el mercado, de acuerdo con sus necesidades, para operar de manera eficiente y distribuir eficazmente los recursos financieros de la sociedad, asignando capital entre diferentes partes interesadas de acuerdo con los resultados de sus inversiones. 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