{"id":10276,"date":"2024-09-24T10:16:19","date_gmt":"2024-09-24T13:16:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/?p=10276"},"modified":"2024-09-24T14:19:23","modified_gmt":"2024-09-24T17:19:23","slug":"allan-j-lichtman-el-pronosticador-que-dijo-que-ronald-reagan-y-donald-trump-2016-llegarian-a-la-casa-blanca-ahora-dice-que-kamala-harris-ganara-en-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radiomiami.us\/en\/allan-j-lichtman-el-pronosticador-que-dijo-que-ronald-reagan-y-donald-trump-2016-llegarian-a-la-casa-blanca-ahora-dice-que-kamala-harris-ganara-en-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Allan J. Lichtman, el pronosticador que dijo que Ronald Reagan y Donald Trump (2016) llegar\u00edan a la Casa Blanca, ahora dice que Kamala Harris ganar\u00e1 en 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"story__header\">\n<h6 class=\"story__title\"><strong>\u00bfQui\u00e9n ser\u00e1 el pr\u00f3ximo presidente de EE.UU.?: Esto dice el pronosticador \u201cm\u00e1s veterano y mejor\u201d<\/strong><\/h6>\n<div class=\"story__excerpt\">\n<h2><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"container--row\">\n<div class=\"col--main\">\n<figure class=\"story__gallery\">\n<div class=\"story__gallery-cover\"><strong><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/eldiariony.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/pronosticador-elecciones-EE.UU_.jpg?resize=480,270&amp;quality=80\" srcset=\"https:\/\/eldiariony.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/pronosticador-elecciones-EE.UU_.jpg?resize=480,270&amp;quality=80 767w, https:\/\/eldiariony.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/pronosticador-elecciones-EE.UU_.jpg?resize=1316,740&amp;quality=80\" alt=\"Fotograf\u00eda cedida por el Foreign Press Center del profesor de la American University, Allan Lichtman, mientras habla durante una conferencia de prensa en la sede del club en Washington (EE. UU).\" width=\"480\" height=\"270\" \/><\/strong><\/div><figcaption class=\"story__gallery-caption\"><strong>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Fotograf\u00eda cedida por el Foreign Press Center del profesor de la American University, <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Allan Lichtman, mientras habla durante una conferencia de prensa en la sede del club <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0en Washington (EE. UU). \u00a0Cr\u00e9dito: Foreign Press Center | EFE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"story__main\">\n<div class=\"story__content\">\n<div class=\"story__body\">\n<h6><strong>Una carta de felicitaci\u00f3n firmada por Donald Trump es uno de los principales recuerdos que atesora Allan J. Lichtman de su infalibilidad: \u201cFui de los pocos que pronostic\u00f3 su victoria\u201d, cuenta a Efe en una entrevista el experto, cuya predicci\u00f3n no gustar\u00e1 este a\u00f1o al republicano, pues tiene claro que\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/eldiariony.com\/2024\/09\/19\/el-apoyo-de-taylor-swift-puede-ser-clave-para-la-victoria-de-kamala-harris-sobre-trump\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/eldiariony.com\/2024\/09\/19\/el-apoyo-de-taylor-swift-puede-ser-clave-para-la-victoria-de-kamala-harris-sobre-trump\/\">Kamala Harris ganar\u00e1 el 5 de noviembre.<\/a><\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>\u201cLas claves pronostican que vamos a tener a una presidenta nueva y sin precedentes, que Harris se convertir\u00e1 en la primera mujer presidenta\u00a0y en la primera presidenta de ascendencia mixta africana y del este de Asia, lo que en cierto modo presagia hacia d\u00f3nde se dirige Estados Unidos\u201d, apunta contundente.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>Lichtman no tiene duda de calificarse a s\u00ed mismo como el pronosticador electoral estadounidense m\u00e1s veterano y el m\u00e1s infalible:\u00a0\u201cNadie m\u00e1s se acerca a m\u00ed y nadie ha estado pronosticando 40 a\u00f1os como yo, nadie tiene un historial ni siquiera parecido\u201d, afirma.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>Su nivel de aciertos: diez de diez.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>Doctorado en Historia Americana y m\u00e9todos cuantitativos por la Universidad de Harvard y profesor de la American University, Lichtman lleva haciendo predicciones desde los a\u00f1os 80.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>\u201cPredije la reelecci\u00f3n de Ronald Reagan en abril de 1982, casi tres a\u00f1os antes de las elecciones, cuando Estados Unidos estaba en la peor recesi\u00f3n desde la Gran Depresi\u00f3n hasta ese momento y el 60 % de los estadounidenses dec\u00eda que era demasiado viejo para postularse de nuevo y su \u00edndice de aprobaci\u00f3n estaba en m\u00ednimos hist\u00f3ricos\u201d, relata.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>Tambi\u00e9n estuvo seguro del resultado de las elecciones de 2016, en las que Hillary Clinton se enfrent\u00f3 a Trump y perdi\u00f3, pese a ser favorita en los sondeos.\u00a0\u201cMi sistema es \u00fanico, no mira las encuestas, no escucha a los expertos, no sigue los acontecimientos de la campa\u00f1a. Mira el panorama general de la gobernanza\u201d, explica.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>Y, en aquel momento, \u201chab\u00eda suficientes llaves en juego en contra de los dem\u00f3cratas\u201d, que eran el partido en el poder.\u00a0De hecho, \u201ccualquier republicano gen\u00e9rico habr\u00eda ganado\u201d.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>Lichtman fue de los pocos expertos que acert\u00f3, un m\u00e9rito reconocido hasta por Trump, quien le mand\u00f3\u00a0\u201cuna nota firmada que dec\u00eda: felicitaciones, profesor\u201d.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-contenthub-heading\"><strong>Las 13 claves a la Casa Blanca<\/strong><\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6><strong>Lichtman utiliza para sus pron\u00f3sticos su propio m\u00e9todo, el de \u201clas 13 claves\u201d (en ingl\u00e9s, the 13 keys), que desarroll\u00f3 en 1981 junto con el matem\u00e1tico Vladimir Keilis-Borok bas\u00e1ndose en un an\u00e1lisis de las tendencias en las campa\u00f1as presidenciales desde 1860.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<h6><\/h6>\n<h6><strong>\u201cLas claves se centran en c\u00f3mo funcionan realmente las elecciones presidenciales estadounidenses y qu\u00e9 cosas tiene a favor o en contra el partido que est\u00e1 en la Casa Blanca\u201d.\u00a0\u201cSi seis o m\u00e1s de las 13 claves van en su contra, se predice que ser\u00e1n perdedores.\u00a0De lo contrario, se predice que ser\u00e1n ganadores\u201d, detalla.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>Las claves analizan aspectos como los resultados de las elecciones de medio mandato, las contiendas por la nominaci\u00f3n del partido en el poder, la existencia de terceros partidos, la econom\u00eda a corto y largo plazo, el malestar social, el esc\u00e1ndalo, el ataque al extranjero o los fracasos y \u00e9xitos militares.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>Solo dos claves tienen algo que ver con los propios candidatos: si son \u00fanicos en su generaci\u00f3n y si son inspiradores y transformadores en su partido.\u00a0Este a\u00f1o, Harris los cumple y \u201cclaramente, las claves de la Casa Blanca predicen una victoria\u201d suya.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-contenthub-heading\"><strong>Nada har\u00e1 cambiar el resultado<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>Lichtman, quien tiene un canal de Youtube en donde hace actualizaciones semanales de sus previsiones, anunci\u00f3 el pron\u00f3stico antes del debate presidencial que enfrent\u00f3 a Harris y Trump el 10 de septiembre, pues quer\u00eda dejar claro que\u00a0\u201clas claves no se ven influidas por los eventos siempre cambiantes de la campa\u00f1a\u201d.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>Se basan \u201cen 160 a\u00f1os de historia\u201d,\u00a0\u201cson la predicci\u00f3n de la Estrella del Norte\u201d y \u201cno cambian\u201d con los a\u00f1os\u00a0ni tampoco con la llegada de las nuevas tecnolog\u00edas, asegura.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>\u201cSon incre\u00edblemente s\u00f3lidas.\u00a0Se basan en la historia, pero en t\u00e9rminos de desarrollo se remontan a los d\u00edas de la pol\u00edtica de caballos y carruajes, cuando Abraham Lincoln fue elegido en 1860, cuando las mujeres no votaban y los afroamericanos estaban esclavizados\u201d.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h6><strong>\u00bfPodr\u00eda cambiar, por tanto, su pron\u00f3stico de aqu\u00ed a noviembre?\u00a0Rotundamente no, afirma, pues las claves no son aspectos que se modifiquen \u201cde la noche a la ma\u00f1ana\u201d.<\/strong><\/h6>\n<div class=\"banner desktop_body banner--h250\" data-slot=\"desktop_body_repeat\">\n<div id=\"ads_body_4\" class=\"hide__mobile\" data-google-query-id=\"CMzauMSF3IgDFeUMigMdbIU6pw\">\n<div id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/138871148\/eldiariony.com.dw.300x250.body.pos3_0__container__\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h6>A sus 77 a\u00f1os, Lichtman afirma que todav\u00eda sigue sintiendo \u201cmariposas en el est\u00f3mago\u201d tras cada elecci\u00f3n. \u201cNo s\u00e9 cu\u00e1nto m\u00e1s podr\u00e9 hacerlo, pero ya tengo seguidores que me han dicho que formar\u00e1n un comit\u00e9 para ocuparse de las llaves cuando ya no pueda\u201d.<\/h6>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Paula Escalada Medrano.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00bfQui\u00e9n ser\u00e1 el pr\u00f3ximo presidente de EE.UU.?: Esto dice el pronosticador \u201cm\u00e1s veterano y mejor\u201d \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Fotograf\u00eda cedida por el Foreign Press Center del profesor de la American University, \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Allan Lichtman, mientras habla durante una conferencia de prensa en la sede del club \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":342,"featured_media":10278,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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